When providing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning. Of various methods of estimating the standard deviation of demand, one that has been employed successfully in the recent literature uses dispersion among experts’ forecasts. However, there has been limited empirical validation of this methodology. In this paper we provide a general methodology for estimating the standard d...
متن کاملTeam allegiance can lead to both optimistic and pessimistic predictions
Although team allegiance is usually associated with optimistic predictions about team performance, the authors hypothesized that preferences for one’s group can also lead to pessimistic predictions. Upon arrival to the laboratory, groups of four participants were split into teams of two based on bogus criteria. Participants were informed that their teammate would compete against a member of the...
متن کاملPessimistic and Optimistic Induction
Learning methods vary in the optimism or pessimism with which they regard the informativeness of learned knowledge. Pessimism is implicit in hypothesis testing, where we wish to draw cautious conclusions from experimental evidence. However, this paper demonstrates that optimism in the utility of derived rules may be the preferred bias for learning systems themselves. We examine the continuum be...
متن کاملPeople focus on optimistic scenarios and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times.
Task completion plans normally resemble best-case scenarios and yield overly optimistic predictions of completion times. The authors induced participants to generate more pessimistic scenarios and examined completion predictions. Participants described a pessimistic scenario of task completion either alone or with an optimistic scenario. Pessimistic scenarios did not affect predictions or accur...
متن کاملThe Ability of Analysts' Recommendations to Predict Optimistic and Pessimistic Forecasts
Previous researches show that buy (growth) companies conduct income increasing earnings management in order to meet forecasts and generate positive forecast Errors (FEs). This behavior however, is not inherent in sell (non-growth) companies. Using the aforementioned background, this research hypothesizes that since sell companies are pressured to avoid income increasing earnings management, the...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: European Journal of Operational Research
سال: 2019
ISSN: 0377-2217
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2018.09.033